Thundurus-EX ROS Variants // BCR-on

So I wanted to make a lock deck based around the new thundurus from roaring skies. It’s first attack does 30 for 1 lightning 1 colourless and on the flip of a tails you paralyse your opponent, so when you throw in trick coin or fliptini you have a 75% chance to paralyse your opponent.
The following is my list, any comments and criticisms are greatly appreciated.
Pokemon 1
4 Thundurus Ex ROS
1-1 Leafeon PlF
2-2 Garbodor LET

Trainers 37
4 professor sycamore
4 n
2 skyla
1 colress
2 lysandre
1 lysandre’s trump card
1 xerosic
1 teammates

2 switch
1 startling megaphone
2 ultra ball
2 professor’s letter
1 battle compressor
2 vs seeker
4 trick coin
1 muscle band
1 tool retriever
1 float stone

Energy 13
13 basic lightning

Leafeon was teched in to help against toad early on due to the sheer amount of items the deck needs to work.
Garbodor to stop shaymin, ancient trait altaria, safeguard.
Tool retriever and muscle band is if I want to do 170 with thundurus’ second attack straight away rather than paralyse lock.
Professor’s letter and the high energy count is to make sure I can start attack turn 2

The aim of the deck is simply to prevent energy acceleration attackers eg baby yvetal so your opponent cant set up as easily, lysandering up your opponents main attacker and keeping them paralysed thus preventing them from attacking, and also slowing down the opponent so you can build up a thundurus with 3 energy on the bench then proceed to ohko with it

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You dont have 75% … You still have only 50%…and its 30 damage and maybe tge possibility of paralysis, seems pointless, i just dont see what your trying to do with this either

It is 75% when you add Fliptini to the equation.

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added aim to the bottom of the list

Well you cant take OHKO,s because 170 doesnt hit any megas for KO and alot of Ex’s have 180 HP, alot of decks run switch and can easily break your paralyze lock so this seems flawed from the very beggining. And by going for the paralyze your hitting a measly 30 damage if you have trick coin on your thunderus, this is basically just a highly flawed toad variant that allows me to use items and 2 VS seeker, just no and why would you need 13 lightening energy thats just wayyy too much for having only 5 possible attackers

run w/ laserbank and fliptini, allow for muscleband

Not how probability actually works. No, don’t ask me to explain; I barely understood it when I was in college. XP Some of it is in the phrasing.

Simply put:
They are two independent events.
50% heads or tails on the first and 50% heads or tails on the second.

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Makes sense, but try this, I tried it already.
Pretend you are playing the deck, you have 2 opportunities to hit heads. You will get a heads on the 1st flip OR the 2nd flip roughly 3 out of 4 times.

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Yes, I understand that, but probability is a weird thing.

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Yes. So you mean to tell me there’s a 1 out of 36 chance I’ll get a certain combination of numbers if I roll 2 dice?

2 dice have only 12 sides, so how does this make any sense?

There’s a difference between rolling a 7 and rolling a 3 then 4 or a 4 then 3.
Does that make sense?

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I mean get ANY heads out of 2 flips. So, if you flip heads on the 1st time, move on. If you get tails on 1st flip, try again on the 2nd flip, then move on.

Well,we’re trying to flip tails for paralysis.

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While each individual flip does have a 50% chance, overall you would have a %75 percent chance of flipping at least one heads or at least one tails. Consider the possible outcomes of two flips:

  1. H,H
  2. H,T
  3. T,H
  4. T,T

Since each of these outcomes is equally likely, you would have a 3 in 4 chance of flipping at least one T, or 75%.

This is pretty much the same problem as the boy-girl/sibling paradox.

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Those are possible outcomes, as you state, which means 75% of the possible outcomes are favorable; this is true.

It is not the same thing as stating you have a 75% chance. At least if we are technical about it.

This is confusing…

But for real, Paralock is difficult to deal with.

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So the question comes down to whether the probability of getting tails from each coin flip is 50%. As long as people assume it is, 75% is the answer.

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Not if you want to pass a stat course in college. :wink:

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I’m not sure what you’re getting at here.

Do you mean that the use of the phrase itself is wrong, or that the actual probability is something close but not equal to 3/4?

If the nitpick is the wording “75% chance” you may have a point semantically (I truly don’t remember), but I really hope that’s not all it is. Calling someone out for colloquial usage when you yourself can’t actually explain what’s incorrect about it seems silly and pedantic.

Assuming the randomizer is truly random the probability is 3/4, or 75%, that you’ll get the outcome you want. There’s nothing tricky going on.

And I did pass my stats courses in college and grad school.

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