Seismitoad-EX counter discussion


#101

The Deck i’m running literally doesn’t run lucario, probably a bad idea on my behalf, lucario EX, would be extremely useful. I’m allowed up to 6 proxies, so I’ll take what I can get. I’ve played Landorus EX with Lucario EX, it’s definitely allot more balanced. I was thinking about running Magnetic Storm to hit through his resistance. I’ll just probably toss in 2-3 lasers, and give that a shot just to splash around extra damage, it’s still a better counter than fighting in this situation.

Yeah, if I get a second turn start I’m usually good, second gives him a chance to setup but really do nothing. I think I’m going to get rid of Korrina’s for 2 skyla/2 korrina. I’ve tested it enough to say I don’t care for a 4 count and having the option to search for a supporter if necessary\stadium I kind of took for granted until realizing this.

Probably going to go with hard charms since I’m running more defensively, I want to make sure in the event he has an electric tech, that I take less damage, and from Yveltal as well as hitting through Darkrai’s Psychic resistance if I have to attack it with a MewTwo.


#102

I am using a metal deck now, and Chrono Wind (Dialga) and Iron Breaker (baby Cobalion) work well


#103

Toad/Garb is easily beaten with PF release. First off, if trubbish comes out on t1, throw out a Flare Ringer or Flare Net…Secondly, there are quite a few cards and decks that hit hard that he can’t compete with…Malamar EX w/ Victini and Manetric come to mind…You can throw a tool on toad as well…:slight_smile: Even against fighting types, Malamar EX can give them a run for the $, not auto loss at all.


#104

@jbandler Malamar EX w/Victini (I hope you mean EX) and Manetric (I hope you don’t mean EX), you must be kidding. Also how do you play a tool under Item lock? Why is Malamar good? Confusion is pants and flippy attacks are never good. You need 6 energy on it to statistically get an OHKO and Mewtwo or Yveltal say hi. It is still good, just it needs more of a support attacker than Mewtwo.


#105

I don’t understand. You know you can’t attach F-Tools to non-EX’s right?

No, I’m fairly confident he is talking about Filptini, the Non-EX.

It’s not confusion, it’s sleep.

This isn’t true. With one dark energy and one DCE (and Filptini on the bench) you have 8 possible outcomes. [HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT]. So the probability § of getting at least one heads is 7/8 or 87.5%. The § of getting at least two heads is 4/8 or 1/2 or 50%. The § of getting three heads is 1/8 or 12.5%.

When you use Fliptini, those probabilities go upper 97something%, 75% and who cares about the last one cause if you get 3 heads your not going to re-flip.

So the odds are in your favor, just have to have the luck too.


#106

I don’t think that’s right. Fliptini has you reflip your attacks again. So the odds stay the same. It’s like running trick coin.


#107

That’s also not true. You get to choose whether or not to re-flip. In probability, any time you get to make a choice, it changes the likely-hood of that event occurring.


#108

The probability of flipping 3 heads the first time is 12.5%

87.5% of the time, you won’t flip all heads, so you will re-flip.

This yields and additional 12.5% x 87.5% = about 11%

12.5% + 11% = 23.5% chance of getting 3 heads with fliptini, off of 3 energy. (Almost double)


#109

So, in response to my good and bad post:

Flare Tools - I keep forgetting I can’t use them on non-ex, so trubbish could be a continued minor pain for Malamar EX sleep ability as well as Victini.

In terms of the cards I pair with Malamar EX:

I normally never put more than 2 dark or 1 dark and 1 DCE on any Malamar EX. I get many OHKO and almost never whiff 180 between 2 turns. Depending on the opponents deck, sometimes I’ll put a MB on him to at least hit 160 minimum in 2 turns. The 2nd attempt to flip again in the same turn is critical to his success/consistency. Regardless, knocking out a Toad lets say in 3 turns at worst case scenario odds is still better than the 150 toad could do in the same timeframe. It’s not even that close.

I currently pair him w/ Manetric EX and Mega to combat Pyroar/Yvetal EX if that is the matchup however I am testing other partners as I am concerned about Pyroar, Klinkklang and nightmarch decks.
Looking for right Basic/Stage 1 type quick hitters. I have 8 or 9 slots I could dedicate to something other than the Manetric EX/energy/tools line.


#110

Muscle Band…took me like ten minutes to figure that out, (laziness sucks).

Yeah I don’t think Muscle Band is necessary, whether you hit for just 60 or w/muscle band 60+20 = 80, your still not hitting that magic 90 number, cause 80+80 doesn’t KO a 170 HP EX and with a 75% of two heads with Fliptini (assuming three energy attached to Malamar EX), chances are you will hit 60+120 in two turns, which is 180 total w/o muscle band.

I’m reminded of the usage of Rayquaza EX and muscle band. It’s just how that 60 times multiplier works.


#111

I blame social media…b/c (because) the pain of admitting to being lazy hurts. :smile:

I only run 2 MB (Muscle Band) and use them more for other pokemon I run like Dedenne and Manetric. I guess I should find a Malamar EX thread or start one so I can get valuable input so as not to clunk up this toad thread. Also, any tool on my poke that I place is better than annoying F (Flare) tools. I flip in/out Masquerain and Tool Retriever…jury is still out which seems better.


#112

Good point! I didn’t think about that! (yeah Muscle Band and Float Stone are going to be common F-Tool counters too.)


#113

I thought FlipTini had been rotated. My bad. I also could have sworn that it was Confusion, anyway only read the JPN for it and wrote it off. Still not as good as Yveltal.

Also you just have 2 chances of 0.125. They are not reliant on each other. If I am correct your maths are wrong. I wish I could tag my friend who is doing Maths and one of the UKs top Unis.


#114

Since I have been a loyal Yvetal EX fan since it’s release and PRIOR to Phantom Forces…I disagree.

3 Energy on Malamar EX in most cases = at least 2 turns of opponent being asleep and 50% chance of it sticking. So, 50% of time I am doing 120 damage and KO you giving me an advantage.

And lets not forget the weakness factor and Manetric EX/Dedenne lurks in more new decks than fighting concerns. I run 3 lysandre to help with Donophan and Gengar EX hiding…

Remember, I can occasionally and do OHKO opponents and Yvetal EX rarely can do same without lots of help and deck resources.


#115

The second outcome is somewhat reliant on the first as you wouldn’t re-flip if you flipped 3 heads the first time.

WARNING MATH:

Probability of getting 3 heads out of this situation is equal to the probability of getting 3 heads the first time, plus the probability you didn’t get 3 heads the first time, multiplied with the probability you get 3 heads the second time.

p(3 heads outcome) = p(3 heads first time) + ((1-p(3 heads first time)) * p(3 heads second time))

EDIT: Changed some stuff for clarity.


#116

Also, the “other” decks, it’s great when you play against Snorlax and dragon walls w/ Zekrom etc.


#117

Did you factor in the fact that if you fail the second time you fail completely. So what is the actual probability that you OHKO with 3 energy.


#118

Flippy cards, with or without Fliptini, show an outrageous disregard for probability at the worst possible times.

Ask anyone who played Vanilluxe.


#119

About 23.5% as stated in my earlier post:

I don’t think anyone is expecting to OHKO consistently, however, almost 1/4 of the time, it will happen.

EDIT: I also think the point of Malamar EX as a Seismitoad counter is that it can potentially put Toad to sleep with it’s ability( thus breaking Item lock) and it will likely 2HKO Toad, with a chance to OHKO.


#120

Correct.

The probability of getting heads each time is 50%: so 0.5x0.5x0.5=0.125, therefore 12.5% or 1/8 of the time and if you get a second chance, then the odds are 1 in 4 turns. So, at least once a game and that seems accurate based on my playing.

Increasing the odds for only getting 2 H per turn, 120 for 2 energy + a 50% chance of putting opponent to sleep and it sticking isn’t too shabby all for the low deck space of 3 cards.