Seismitoad-EX counter discussion


The Deck i’m running literally doesn’t run lucario, probably a bad idea on my behalf, lucario EX, would be extremely useful. I’m allowed up to 6 proxies, so I’ll take what I can get. I’ve played Landorus EX with Lucario EX, it’s definitely allot more balanced. I was thinking about running Magnetic Storm to hit through his resistance. I’ll just probably toss in 2-3 lasers, and give that a shot just to splash around extra damage, it’s still a better counter than fighting in this situation.

Yeah, if I get a second turn start I’m usually good, second gives him a chance to setup but really do nothing. I think I’m going to get rid of Korrina’s for 2 skyla/2 korrina. I’ve tested it enough to say I don’t care for a 4 count and having the option to search for a supporter if necessary\stadium I kind of took for granted until realizing this.

Probably going to go with hard charms since I’m running more defensively, I want to make sure in the event he has an electric tech, that I take less damage, and from Yveltal as well as hitting through Darkrai’s Psychic resistance if I have to attack it with a MewTwo.


I am using a metal deck now, and Chrono Wind (Dialga) and Iron Breaker (baby Cobalion) work well


Toad/Garb is easily beaten with PF release. First off, if trubbish comes out on t1, throw out a Flare Ringer or Flare Net…Secondly, there are quite a few cards and decks that hit hard that he can’t compete with…Malamar EX w/ Victini and Manetric come to mind…You can throw a tool on toad as well…:slight_smile: Even against fighting types, Malamar EX can give them a run for the $, not auto loss at all.


@jbandler Malamar EX w/Victini (I hope you mean EX) and Manetric (I hope you don’t mean EX), you must be kidding. Also how do you play a tool under Item lock? Why is Malamar good? Confusion is pants and flippy attacks are never good. You need 6 energy on it to statistically get an OHKO and Mewtwo or Yveltal say hi. It is still good, just it needs more of a support attacker than Mewtwo.


I don’t understand. You know you can’t attach F-Tools to non-EX’s right?

No, I’m fairly confident he is talking about Filptini, the Non-EX.

It’s not confusion, it’s sleep.

This isn’t true. With one dark energy and one DCE (and Filptini on the bench) you have 8 possible outcomes. [HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT]. So the probability § of getting at least one heads is 7/8 or 87.5%. The § of getting at least two heads is 4/8 or 1/2 or 50%. The § of getting three heads is 1/8 or 12.5%.

When you use Fliptini, those probabilities go upper 97something%, 75% and who cares about the last one cause if you get 3 heads your not going to re-flip.

So the odds are in your favor, just have to have the luck too.


I don’t think that’s right. Fliptini has you reflip your attacks again. So the odds stay the same. It’s like running trick coin.


That’s also not true. You get to choose whether or not to re-flip. In probability, any time you get to make a choice, it changes the likely-hood of that event occurring.


The probability of flipping 3 heads the first time is 12.5%

87.5% of the time, you won’t flip all heads, so you will re-flip.

This yields and additional 12.5% x 87.5% = about 11%

12.5% + 11% = 23.5% chance of getting 3 heads with fliptini, off of 3 energy. (Almost double)


So, in response to my good and bad post:

Flare Tools - I keep forgetting I can’t use them on non-ex, so trubbish could be a continued minor pain for Malamar EX sleep ability as well as Victini.

In terms of the cards I pair with Malamar EX:

I normally never put more than 2 dark or 1 dark and 1 DCE on any Malamar EX. I get many OHKO and almost never whiff 180 between 2 turns. Depending on the opponents deck, sometimes I’ll put a MB on him to at least hit 160 minimum in 2 turns. The 2nd attempt to flip again in the same turn is critical to his success/consistency. Regardless, knocking out a Toad lets say in 3 turns at worst case scenario odds is still better than the 150 toad could do in the same timeframe. It’s not even that close.

I currently pair him w/ Manetric EX and Mega to combat Pyroar/Yvetal EX if that is the matchup however I am testing other partners as I am concerned about Pyroar, Klinkklang and nightmarch decks.
Looking for right Basic/Stage 1 type quick hitters. I have 8 or 9 slots I could dedicate to something other than the Manetric EX/energy/tools line.


Muscle Band…took me like ten minutes to figure that out, (laziness sucks).

Yeah I don’t think Muscle Band is necessary, whether you hit for just 60 or w/muscle band 60+20 = 80, your still not hitting that magic 90 number, cause 80+80 doesn’t KO a 170 HP EX and with a 75% of two heads with Fliptini (assuming three energy attached to Malamar EX), chances are you will hit 60+120 in two turns, which is 180 total w/o muscle band.

I’m reminded of the usage of Rayquaza EX and muscle band. It’s just how that 60 times multiplier works.


I blame social media…b/c (because) the pain of admitting to being lazy hurts. :smile:

I only run 2 MB (Muscle Band) and use them more for other pokemon I run like Dedenne and Manetric. I guess I should find a Malamar EX thread or start one so I can get valuable input so as not to clunk up this toad thread. Also, any tool on my poke that I place is better than annoying F (Flare) tools. I flip in/out Masquerain and Tool Retriever…jury is still out which seems better.


Good point! I didn’t think about that! (yeah Muscle Band and Float Stone are going to be common F-Tool counters too.)


I thought FlipTini had been rotated. My bad. I also could have sworn that it was Confusion, anyway only read the JPN for it and wrote it off. Still not as good as Yveltal.

Also you just have 2 chances of 0.125. They are not reliant on each other. If I am correct your maths are wrong. I wish I could tag my friend who is doing Maths and one of the UKs top Unis.


Since I have been a loyal Yvetal EX fan since it’s release and PRIOR to Phantom Forces…I disagree.

3 Energy on Malamar EX in most cases = at least 2 turns of opponent being asleep and 50% chance of it sticking. So, 50% of time I am doing 120 damage and KO you giving me an advantage.

And lets not forget the weakness factor and Manetric EX/Dedenne lurks in more new decks than fighting concerns. I run 3 lysandre to help with Donophan and Gengar EX hiding…

Remember, I can occasionally and do OHKO opponents and Yvetal EX rarely can do same without lots of help and deck resources.


The second outcome is somewhat reliant on the first as you wouldn’t re-flip if you flipped 3 heads the first time.


Probability of getting 3 heads out of this situation is equal to the probability of getting 3 heads the first time, plus the probability you didn’t get 3 heads the first time, multiplied with the probability you get 3 heads the second time.

p(3 heads outcome) = p(3 heads first time) + ((1-p(3 heads first time)) * p(3 heads second time))

EDIT: Changed some stuff for clarity.


Also, the “other” decks, it’s great when you play against Snorlax and dragon walls w/ Zekrom etc.


Did you factor in the fact that if you fail the second time you fail completely. So what is the actual probability that you OHKO with 3 energy.


Flippy cards, with or without Fliptini, show an outrageous disregard for probability at the worst possible times.

Ask anyone who played Vanilluxe.


About 23.5% as stated in my earlier post:

I don’t think anyone is expecting to OHKO consistently, however, almost 1/4 of the time, it will happen.

EDIT: I also think the point of Malamar EX as a Seismitoad counter is that it can potentially put Toad to sleep with it’s ability( thus breaking Item lock) and it will likely 2HKO Toad, with a chance to OHKO.



The probability of getting heads each time is 50%: so 0.5x0.5x0.5=0.125, therefore 12.5% or 1/8 of the time and if you get a second chance, then the odds are 1 in 4 turns. So, at least once a game and that seems accurate based on my playing.

Increasing the odds for only getting 2 H per turn, 120 for 2 energy + a 50% chance of putting opponent to sleep and it sticking isn’t too shabby all for the low deck space of 3 cards.