How much work have you done with statistics? Asking because for all I know you’re better at it than I am.
I mean it, I found the course very difficult and mostly remember enough to know that statistics are hard and easily misunderstood. I mean, just to calculate the odds of opening with any one card, you have to factor in your total opening hand size (seven, as I am treating “opening” hand as separate from “your hand on your first turn”). You can calculate the odds for taking all seven at once or for taking one out of 60 then one out of 59 etc. until you’ve taken your last card…
…and if you whiff on a Pokémon, it doesn’t count even if you do get that one (non-Basic Pokémon) card for which you were trying. Once we start working in the effects of actions on your opening turn, it gets even more difficult.
So in a non-technical manner… five “specific” cards will vary depending upon how many of each card you open with. The scenario you presented was pretty specific as well. Going through your list of requirements:
- You going first.
Mewtwo-EX as your Active.
- You get a… Landorus-EX.
- Same for getting a Trubbish…
- … and a source of [F] Energy.
- Your opponent opened with a Virizion-EX.
- Your opponent gets a Grass Energy.
- Your opponent attaches said Energy to Virizion-EX…
- …and passes.
- You get a Garbodor and Evolve into it.
- You get and attach a Muscle Band to Mewtwo-EX.
- You get and attach a Double Colorless Energy to Mewtwo-EX and attack.
- Your opponent gets a second Energy.
- Your opponent attaches it to Virizion-EX.
- Your opponent attacks Mewtwo-EX.
- Second Landorus-EX.
- Second source of [F] Energy to that second Landorus-EX.
- A tool to… Trubbish? You don’t mention a second one, so I will assume you meant Garbodor that your original Trubbish already Evolved into. Then you attack Virizion-EX for the KO.
- Your opponent has a Genesect-EX in play…
- …and promotes it even though obvious trap is obvious by this point.
- Opponent does not choose to take out Garbodor (or anything else you might have in play).
- Opponent does not force a Landorus-EX up front to OHKO with G-Booster (dropping down to a single Energy would mean a Mewtwo-EX with [CCCC] attached, as implied, would only score 120 points of damage. Even with Hypnotoxic Laser and Virbank City Gym, you won’t hit your “revenge OHKO” total of 170… or did I miscount?
- Opponent does not hit you with N to drop you down to four cards, or play anything else that could potentially mess with your set-up, like following up Startling Megaphone with another Virizion-EX to the field. Don’t forget if Starling Megaphone ends up being used, all your Pokémon (and not just Garbodor) lose Tools.
- Whatever your opponent’s reaction, you have another source of [F] Energy available to attach or a Double Colorless Energy. Not sure how to count that you might need a second Muscle Band.
- Hypnotoxic Laser
Virbank City Gym and attack with a Hammerhead for a maximum of
+30 (Base Damage of attack)
+30 Strong Energy #1
+30 *Strong Energy #2
+20 Muscle Band
110 points total
+10 (damage counter from Poison via Laser)
+20 (bonus damage counters from Virbank)
140 effective points of damage
Yes, one more turn will mean another 3 damage counters… if your opponent can do nothing to counter it. If that is a part of your plan then that’s item #27, and if not go ahead and let me know where I goofed. ^^ Regardless, your plan of attack requires over two dozen events occur; none of them guaranteed even if multiple are probable. Some may have multiple options, but what you need for those (the double Strong Energy) makes things less likely to work out as compared to being able to use a Fighting Energy, a Strong Energy or even a Rainbow Energy (if your deck runs such a thing). For anyone really going through this, note that somethings which are “givens” because you’re in control are not when its the opponent’s turn; you control attaching an Energy and attacking, but for your opponent that is two separate things.
When you compare scenarios, it needs to be “Like Versus Like”. You compare single cards to single cards, similarly involved combos to similarly involved combos, and decks versus decks. You’re using such a developed combo and based on later comments, assuming the rest of the deck’s infrastructure which means we move into “deck versus deck” territory. You’ve got to worry about things like an opponent running Beartic and as soon as they see Landorus-EX (you wanted to play one on your first turn) they decide to build it into of Genesect-EX. Using Virizion-EX to accelerate to Beartic instead of Genesect-EX means they could still use Startling Megaphone to flip Abilities back “on”, then drop a Plasma Energy onto Genesect-EX to Red Signal, and one of your Landorus-EX goes down in one shot.
Yes, that “counter” involves assumptions as well: you allowed them for your example, so they are fair game here. VirGen decks also are kind of famous for how they have so much room to work with; they can surprise you with unexpected things like Energy Switch. Not even just a lone TecH copy but possibly two, three or even a full four. Suddenly a Switch into a fresh Virizion-EX or surprise Mewtwo-EX is followed by an Energy Switch and a manual Energy attachment and now the “fresh” one is what is attacking Mewtwo-EX.
I also left out one more assumption that is dangerous; your opponent’s skill level. One of the almost paradoxical aspects of the game is that sometimes a player’s lack of skill or bad deck build costs them the tournament but earns them a few wins. They keep doing the unexpected and while overall their odds of winning are lower, for key match-ups that require everyone “stick to the script” it can really upset things.
TL;DR: I am mostly using this as a summary as this post is quite long. I am glad you realized your explanation was confusing… but even apart from that your case isn’t very compelling because there is just so much that seems assumed.